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BoE concerned about UK current account deficit

Kit Klarenberg
Written By:
Posted:
08/04/2015
Updated:
08/04/2015

Members of the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee showed concern about the UK’s current account deficit in the most recent minutes.

Minutes from the most recent meeting of the FPC on 24 March show members fear that the deficit, which currently stands at £98bn (equal to 5.5 per cent of GDP), could mean markets spurn Britain in a time of economic stress.

The deficit stands at its highest level since records began in 1948; the minutes of the meeting show the FPC recognises the “historical” significance of the total, and that the figure is high by international standards. Concerns were also raised that the recent increase in domestic credit has not been big enough to fund the deficit. “Greater confidence in the economy will mean, however, that the deficit is easier to finance…that said, the current account deficit could, in adverse circumstances, trigger a deterioration in market sentiment towards the United Kingdom.”

The meeting concluded with the committee agreeing to keep the prospective risk under close review, “and monitor the maturity and liquidity of the financing of the deficit.”

Analysts and commentators have raised similar concerns about weaknesses in the UK economy, and the potential of political and economic uncertainty to exacerbate these structural flaws. Earlier this month, BlackRock noted that the UK was particularly susceptible to a loss of market confidence as the “gaping” current account deficit makes the country “particularly reliant on the kindness of overseas lenders to remain afloat.” Last week, Neil Woodford said the prospect of a British exit from the EU, and the likelihood of an unstable coalition being formed following the next General Election, could cause severe instability.

The FPC noted that the risks posed to UK financial stability were largely unchanged since its last meeting in December; housing market and household debt risks had not increased since then, although household indebtedness remained high. However, falling oil prices and improving economic performance by key trading partners in North America and Europe were reducing their potency.

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On the other hand, the ongoing Greek debt crisis remains a major, and still-developing concern; “the risks in relation to Greece and its financing needs has increased. Low nominal growth in the Eurozone could also exacerbate financing challenges in highly indebted economies.”